
If you did not see my column last week, it was because I did not want
to rain on anyone’s parade. I wanted the euphoria over the bullet we
missed by avoiding the riots that would have ensued had the APC been
defeated to subside. But I am now back to tell you that the presidential
election was a big INEC rigmarole. Long before Jonathan lost the
election to Buhari, he had been defeated by the machinations of Jega and
INEC.
As a matter of fact, General Buhari did not win this
presidential election: President Jonathan lost it. The president lost
because he allowed himself to be defeated. Maybe he did not want to
remain in power badly enough. Or maybe there was a side of him that felt
there is honour in being the first incumbent president to lose an
election in Nigeria. Whatever the case; he failed to heed the warning of
many that, like Aminu Tambuwal and Lamido Sanusi, Attahiru Jega was
working for the enemy.
Failure of Tinubu
With the coalition of Bola Tinubu’s ACN and Buhari’s CPC, many
concluded that the outcome of the 2015 presidential election would be
determined in the South-West. The assumption was that Tinubu would
provide the killer-punch that had been missing in Buhari’s earlier
failed attempts. However, this has proved to be mistaken. Tinubu failed
to clean up the South-West with his broom for the APC. Indeed, in order
for the APC to prevail in Lagos with only 160,000 votes, INEC had to
ensure that many non-indigenes could not get their PVCs.
The truth
of the matter is that, quite apart from the shenanigan of having a
Redeemed Yoruba pastor as Buhari’s vice-presidential running-mate, the
people of the South-West don’t like Buhari. In the 2011 election, they
said this emphatically by giving him a paltry 321,000 votes out of the
4.7 million cast in the geopolitical zone. This time, in 2015, Buhari
received 2.4 million South-West votes, with a plurality of 600,000 over
Jonathan. However, most of those votes were actually not for Buhari:
they were against Jonathan.
In the end, the South-West vote was
neither pivotal to Buhari’s victory nor central to Jonathan’s defeat.
Tinubu’s assistance for Buhari ended at the APC presidential primaries
where he got Buhari nominated against the wishes of Northern delegates.
All Tinubu did at the level of the presidential election was to give a
façade of national spread to Buhari’s essentially Northern victory. This
factor will soon come to haunt Tinubu and his South-West cohorts when
it is time to share the spoils of victory in the Buhari administration.
Should
APC lose the Lagos governorship election, Tinubu would be left in a
quandary. All the Northern timber and caliber who were missing in action
throughout the campaign when Tinubu, Fashola and other Southern
politicians were running helter-skelter with Buhari, will soon come out
of the woodwork to claim their Buhari inheritance. Inevitably, they will
overshadow the Southern brigade. Vice-President Osinbajo will simply be
sent to fetch water when crucial decisions are to be made by Northern
“born-to-rule” elements.
Southerners without coattails
In order to defeat the PDP, APC
needed to undermine Jonathan in his areas of greatest strengths – the
South-South and the South-East. However, APC men like Amaechi, Okorocha
and Oshiomhole proved to be paper-tigers in these areas. In Rivers,
Amaechi was disgraced. With all his bluster, he could only deliver
69,000 votes to Buhari; while Jonathan made off with a whopping 1.45
million. No wonder, therefore, that the governor tried to save face by
saying there was no election in Rivers. He even rented a crowd to go on a
perfunctory demonstration.
Chinem Bestman sent me a text message
from Port Harcourt with the same complaint that the election was rigged.
I answered by asking him if there has ever been a free and fair
election in Rivers since 1999. Amaechi knew the ropes, therefore when he
came for accreditation, he asked to see the election result sheet. He
knew the traditional rigmarole in Rivers was to doctor the report sheet.
Now that he has been out-rigged, he is singing a different tune; asking
Rivers people to forgive him.
In Imo, Okorocha was humiliated. He
could only deliver 19% of the vote to Buhari. It looks like the
governor is going to need another job very soon as he is unlikely to be
re-elected. In Edo, Oshiomhole did much better. APC lost with 208,000
votes to PDP’s 286,000. Nevertheless, Oshiomhole tried to explain this
away by complaining that PDP used the military to manipulate the
election. However, when INEC announced the results, APC won the
senatorial election in Edo North; one of the places where the governor
claimed PDP used the military to rig.
Assault on the South-East
Godsday
Orubebe grabbed the microphone during the collation of the election
results and alleged to the whole world that INEC chairman Attahiru Jega
is partial and tribalistic. His outburst may have been embarrassing, but
it is not entirely without justification. The evidence of INEC’s
partiality is compelling. Although President Jonathan put a call to
Orubebe to stop his protest, and he has decided to accept the verdict of
INEC, that does not mean we should sweep INEC’s shenanigans under the
carpet.
It
is easy to fob off Orubebe by saying he was only being emotional
because he is a PDP man from Niger Delta, a kinsman of Mr. President who
“lost” the election. That just won’t cut it. I am not a Niger Deltan. I
don’t belong in the PDP. I don’t know Goodluck Jonathan and I have
never ever met him or spoken to him. Cynical Nigerians believe anyone
who supports Jonathan must either be in his pay or be looking for a job.
Neither allegation is applicable to me. Jonathan ostensibly received
12.8 million votes; surely all these people were neither in his pay nor
Aso Rock job-seekers.
My faith requires me to support the weak.
Therefore, I will always support the minority against the tyranny of the
majority. We cannot be reliant on South-South oil in Nigeria and then
treat one of their sons as if he is an impostor for being president of
the country. The fact of the matter is that this presidential election
was the result of a vicious and malicious gang-up of the majority ethnic
groups against the minorities.
Since the civil war, the Igbos of
the South-East have been treated as if they are a minority ethnic group
in Nigeria when in fact they are one of the majorities. In order to
diminish Jonathan’s votes, a major assault was made against them;
recognising that they are some of the staunchest Jonathan supporters. In
2011, the Igbo gave Goodluck Jonathan a decisive 5 million votes. The
task of INEC in 2015 was to ensure that did not recur.
INEC rigmarole
Buhari
prevailed as a result of a deliberate disenfranchisement of the Igbo by
INEC through the manipulation of PVC distribution and the failure of
the card reader in the South-East and the South-South. INEC ensured
that, far more disproportionately and relative to other geopolitical
zones, millions of South-East voters disappeared between 2011 and 2015,
in order to provide a smooth passage for a Northern presidential
candidate; which turned out to be Buhari.
The first strategy of
INEC in this regard was to create 29,000 additional polling units,
allocating 21,000 of these to the North and only 8,000 to the South. In
this crass manipulation, INEC gave more additional polling units to
Abuja than it gave to the entire South-East. However, widespread outcry
over this proposal forced INEC to jettison it despite protracted
resistance by Jega.
But INEC had a plan B: the registration of
voters and the collection of PVCs. This was bogus and lopsided; skewed
most especially against the South-East where only 7.6 million were
registered and 5.6 million PVCs collected. Compare this with the
war-torn North-East: 9.1 million were registered and 7.4 million
collected. But the most outrageous were the figures of the North-West.
17.6 million registrations and 15.1 million collections were recorded in
the North-West; much more than the figures in the entire South-East and
South-South combined.
On Election Day, news of a bomb blast in
Enugu served to discourage people from coming out to vote in the
South-East. In addition, there was widespread late voter accreditation
and voting in the South-East as well as the South-South. One reason for
this was the massive failure of the card-readers in these zones, highly
suggestive that they were programmed to fail there.
Quite
incredibly, the card-reader failed to recognise even the president. It
took President Jonathan 35 minutes to get accredited; but within five
hours, we are meant to believe that 2.5 million voters in Kano were duly
accredited. In the middle of the election, INEC changed from
card-reader to manual accreditation. This suddenly brought into play the
huge voter registrations in the North-West. Cell-phone video recordings
showed many of the North-West’s bloated PVC holders to be under-aged
children.
Abracadabra
The total effect of these machinations
is that over 2.4 million South-East voters were successfully
disenfranchised. 38 million people nationwide voted for Buhari and
Jonathan in 2011. In 2015, this figure shrank to 28 million. The votes
of the South-West remained virtually constant. 4.6 million people of the
South-West voted in 2011: 4.2 million in 2015. But compare this with
what happened in the South-East. 5 million people voted in 2011, only
2.6 million in 2015. That is a drastic drop of 2.4 million.
While
Kano, Katsina, Kaduna, Jigawa and Bauchi were posting their traditional
humongous figures; Imo, Anambra and Abia were posting relatively
disappointing figures. Jigawa used to be a part of Kano, when Kano was
said to be bigger than Lagos. In the 2015 election, the votes of Jigawa
and Kano combined was double that of Lagos. Lagos had 1.4 million votes.
Jigawa and Kano had 3.1 million; virtually all for Buhari.
While the internally displaced Northerners in the North-East could vote,
internally displaced Igbos from the North could not. In places like
Lagos and Kano, many non-indigenes were not even given their PVCs. In
effect, the innovation of the Permanent Voters Cards is designed to
permanently disenfranchise the South. If this is not redressed
immediately, the North will always determine the winner in Nigerian
elections.