Now, let me quickly turn to Nigeria. As you all know, Nigeria’s fourth
republic is in its 16th year and this general election will be the fifth
in a row.
Permit me to start by thanking Chatham House for
the invitation to talk about this important topic at this crucial time.
When speaking about Nigeria overseas, I normally prefer to be my
country’s public relations and marketing officer, extolling her virtues
and hoping to attract investments and tourists. But as we all know,
Nigeria is now battling with many challenges, and if I refer to them, I
do so only to impress on our friends in the United Kingdom that we are
quite aware of our shortcomings and are doing our best to address them.
The 2015 general election in Nigeria is generating a lot of interests
within and outside the country. This is understandable. Nigeria,
Africa’s most populous country and largest economy, is at a defining
moment, a moment that has great implications beyond the democratic
project and beyond the borders of my dear country.
So let me say upfront that the global interest in Nigeria’s landmark
election is not misplaced at all and indeed should be commended; for
this is an election that has serious import for the world. I urge the
international community to continue to focus on Nigeria at this very
critical moment. Given increasing global linkages, it is in our
collective interests that the postponed elections should hold on the
rescheduled dates; that they should be free and fair; that their
outcomes should be respected by all parties; and that any form of
extension, under whichever guise, is unconstitutional and will not be
tolerated.
With the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the dissolution of the USSR
in 1991, the collapse of communism and the end of the Cold War,
democracy became the dominant and most preferred system of government
across the globe. That global transition has been aptly captured as the
triumph of democracy and the ‘most pre-eminent political idea of our
time.’ On a personal note, the phased end of the USSR was a turning
point for me. It convinced me that change can be brought about without
firing a single shot.
As you all know, I had been a military head of state in Nigeria for
twenty months. We intervened because we were unhappy with the state of
affairs in our country. We wanted to arrest the drift. Driven by
patriotism, influenced by the prevalence and popularity of such drastic
measures all over Africa and elsewhere, we fought our way to power. But
the global triumph of democracy has shown that another and a preferable
path to change is possible. It is an important lesson I have carried
with me since, and a lesson that is not lost on the African continent.
In the last two decades, democracy has grown strong roots in Africa.
Elections, once so rare, are now so commonplace. As at the time I was a
military head of state between 1983 and 1985, only four African
countries held regular multi-party elections. But the number of
electoral democracies in Africa, according to Freedom House, jumped to
10 in 1992/1993 then to 18 in 1994/1995 and to 24 in 2005/2006.
According to the New York Times, 42 of the 48 countries in Sub-Saharan
Africa conducted multi-party elections between 1990 and 2002.
The newspaper also reported that between 2000 and 2002, ruling
parties in four African countries (Senegal, Mauritius, Ghana and Mali)
peacefully handed over power to victorious opposition parties. In
addition, the proportion of African countries categorized as not free by
Freedom House declined from 59% in 1983 to 35% in 2003. Without doubt,
Africa has been part of the current global wave of democratisation.
But the growth of democracy on the continent has been uneven.
According to Freedom House, the number of electoral democracies in
Africa slipped from 24 in 2007/2008 to 19 in 2011/2012; while the
percentage of countries categorised as ‘not free’ assuming for the sake
of argument that we accept their definition of “free” increased from 35%
in 2003 to 41% in 2013. Also, there have been some reversals at
different times in Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, Cote
D’Ivoire, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Lesotho, Mali, Madagascar, Mauritania
and Togo. We can choose to look at the glass of democracy in Africa as
either half full or half empty.
While you can’t have representative democracy without elections, it
is equally important to look at the quality of the elections and to
remember that mere elections do not democracy make. It is globally
agreed that democracy is not an event, but a journey. And that the
destination of that journey is democratic consolidation – that state
where democracy has become so rooted and so routine and widely accepted
by all actors.
With this important destination in mind, it is clear that though many
African countries now hold regular elections, very few of them have
consolidated the practice of democracy. It is important to also state at
this point that just as with elections, a consolidated democracy cannot
be an end by itself. I will argue that it is not enough to hold a
series of elections or even to peacefully alternate power among parties.
It is much more important that the promise of democracy goes beyond
just allowing people to freely choose their leaders. It is much more
important that democracy should deliver on the promise of choice, of
freedoms, of security of lives and property, of transparency and
accountability, of rule of law, of good governance and of shared
prosperity. It is very important that the promise embedded in the
concept of democracy, the promise of a better life for the generality of
the people, is not delivered in the breach.
Now, let me quickly turn to Nigeria. As you all know, Nigeria’s
fourth republic is in its 16th year and this general election will be
the fifth in a row. This is a major sign of progress for us, given that
our first republic lasted five years and three months, the second
republic ended after four years and two months and the third republic
was a still-birth. However, longevity is not the only reason why
everyone is so interested in this election.
The major difference this time around is that for the very first time
since transition to civil rule in 1999, the ruling Peoples Democratic
Party (PDP) is facing its stiffest opposition so far from our party the
All Progressives Congress (APC). We once had about 50 political parties,
but with no real competition. Now Nigeria is transitioning from a
dominant party system to a competitive electoral polity, which is a
major marker on the road to democratic consolidation. As you know,
peaceful alternation of power through competitive elections have
happened in Ghana, Senegal, Malawi and Mauritius in recent times. The
prospects of democratic consolidation in Africa will be further
brightened when that eventually happens in Nigeria.
But there are other reasons why Nigerians and the whole world are
intensely focussed on this year’s elections, chief of which is that the
elections are holding in the shadow of huge security, economic and
social uncertainties in Africa’s most populous country and largest
economy. On insecurity, there is a genuine cause for worry, both within
and outside Nigeria. Apart from the civil war era, at no other time in
our history has Nigeria been this insecure.
Boko Haram has sadly put Nigeria on the terrorism map, killing more
than 13,000 of our nationals, displacing millions internally and
externally, and at a time holding on to portions of our territory the
size of Belgium. What has been consistently lacking is the required
leadership in our battle against insurgency. I, as a retired general and
a former head of state, have always known about our soldiers: they are
capable, well trained, patriotic, brave and always ready to do their
duty in the service of our country.
You all can bear witness to the gallant role of our military in
Burma, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Darfur
and in many other peacekeeping operations in several parts of the world.
But in the matter of this insurgency, our soldiers have neither
received the necessary support nor the required incentives to tackle
this problem. The government has also failed in any effort towards a
multi-dimensional response to this problem leading to a situation in
which we have now become dependent on our neighbours to come to our
rescue.
Let me assure you that if I am elected president, the world will have
no cause to worry about Nigeria as it has had to recently; that Nigeria
will return to its stabilising role in West Africa; and that no inch of
Nigerian territory will ever be lost to the enemy because we will pay
special attention to the welfare of our soldiers in and out of service,
we will give them adequate and modern arms and ammunitions to work with,
we will improve intelligence gathering and border controls to choke
Boko Haram’s financial and equipment channels, we will be tough on
terrorism and tough on its root causes by initiating a comprehensive
economic development plan promoting infrastructural development, job
creation, agriculture and industry in the affected areas. We will always
act on time and not allow problems to irresponsibly fester, and I,
Muhammadu Buhari, will always lead from the front and return Nigeria to
its leadership role in regional and international efforts to combat
terrorism.
On the economy, the fall in prices of oil has brought our economic
and social stress into full relief. After the rebasing exercise in April
2014, Nigeria overtook South Africa as Africa’s largest economy. Our
GDP is now valued at $510 billion and our economy rated 26th in the
world. Also on the bright side, inflation has been kept at single digit
for a while and our economy has grown at an average of 7% for about a
decade.
But it is more of paper growth, a growth that, on account of
mismanagement, profligacy and corruption, has not translated to human
development or shared prosperity. A development economist once said
three questions should be asked about a country’s development: one, what
is happening to poverty? Two, what is happening to unemployment? And
three, what is happening to inequality?
The answers to these questions in Nigeria show that the current
administration has created two economies in one country, a sorry tale of
two nations: one economy for a few who have so much in their tiny
island of prosperity; and the other economy for the many who have so
little in their vast ocean of misery.
Even by official figures, 33.1% of Nigerians live in extreme poverty.
That’s at almost 60 million, almost the population of the United
Kingdom. There is also the unemployment crisis simmering beneath the
surface, ready to explode at the slightest stress, with officially 23.9%
of our adult population and almost 60% of our youth unemployed. We also
have one of the highest rates of inequalities in the world.
With all these, it is not surprising that our performance on most
governance and development indicators (like Mo Ibrahim Index on African
Governance and UNDP’s Human Development Index.) are unflattering. With
fall in the prices of oil, which accounts for more than 70% of
government revenues, and lack of savings from more than a decade of oil
boom, the poor will be disproportionately impacted.
In the face of dwindling revenues, a good place to start the
repositioning of Nigeria’s economy is to swiftly tackle two ills that
have ballooned under the present administration: waste and corruption.
And in doing this, I will, if elected, lead the way, with the force of
personal example.
On corruption, there will be no confusion as to where I stand.
Corruption will have no place and the corrupt will not be appointed into
my administration. First and foremost, we will plug the holes in the
budgetary process. Revenue producing entities such as NNPC and Customs
and Excise will have one set of books only. Their revenues will be
publicly disclosed and regularly audited. The institutions of state
dedicated to fighting corruption will be given independence and
prosecutorial authority without political interference.
But I must emphasise that any war waged on corruption should not be
misconstrued as settling old scores or a witch-hunt. I’m running for
President to lead Nigeria to prosperity and not adversity.
In reforming the economy, we will use savings that arise from
blocking these leakages and the proceeds recovered from corruption to
fund our party’s social investments programmes in education, health, and
safety nets such as free school meals for children, emergency public
works for unemployed youth and pensions for the elderly.
As a progressive party, we must reform our political economy to
unleash the pent-up ingenuity and productivity of the Nigerian people
thus freeing them from the curse of poverty. We will run a private
sector-led economy but maintain an active role for government through
strong regulatory oversight and deliberate interventions and incentives
to diversify the base of our economy, strengthen productive sectors,
improve the productive capacities of our people and create jobs for our
teeming youths.
In short, we will run a functional economy driven by a worldview that
sees growth not as an end by itself, but as a tool to create a society
that works for all, rich and poor alike. On March 28, Nigeria has a
decision to make. To vote for the continuity of failure or to elect
progressive change. I believe the people will choose wisely.
In sum, I think that given its strategic importance, Nigeria can
trigger a wave of democratic consolidation in Africa. But as a starting
point we need to get this critical election right by ensuring that they
go ahead, and depriving those who want to scuttle it the benefit of
derailing our fledgling democracy. That way, we will all see democracy
and democratic consolidation as tools for solving pressing problems in a
sustainable way, not as ends in themselves.
Prospects for Democratic Consolidation in Africa: Nigeria’s Transition
Permit me to close this discussion on a personal note. I have
heard and read references to me as a former dictator in many respected
British newspapers including the well regarded Economist. Let me say
without sounding defensive that dictatorship goes with military rule,
though some might be less dictatorial than others. I take responsibility
for whatever happened under my watch.
I cannot change the past. But I can change the present and the
future. So before you is a former military ruler and a converted
democrat who is ready to operate under democratic norms and is
subjecting himself to the rigours of democratic elections for the fourth
time.
You may ask: why is he doing this? This is a question I ask myself
all the time too. And here is my humble answer: because the work of
making Nigeria great is not yet done, because I still believe that
change is possible, this time through the ballot, and most importantly,
because I still have the capacity and the passion to dream and work for a
Nigeria that will be respected again in the comity of nations and that
all Nigerians will be proud of.
I thank you for listening.
